• Dowling & Partners

    ALL INSURANCE.
    ALL THE TIME.

    Comprised of 15 analysts, our Equity Research team is in constant contact with management of both public and private companies to keep our clients abreast of industry trends and new developments. Our boutique model of “all insurance, all the time” allows our dedicated five person sales team to respond to our client’s needs quickly and provide timely access to senior research analysts. 

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    2015 p/C industry reserves continue to weaken

    Our takeaway from this initial look at the industry is that the2015 AY initial loss picks look similar to the 2014 pick in that they are notably weaker than '12-'13 picks. All in we believe that the industry net loss reserve posotion has weakened slightly in 2015 vs 2014, though the weakening would have been much more noticeable had AIG not added $3.4B to reserves in 2015.  Net loss reserve position does vary by company, see our indivdual company analysis

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    Soft market play: aig's new quota shares..lesser of two evils for reinsurers?

    With greater "pain" emerging at the primary level, companies are increasingly looking to the now cheaper reins. markets for ways to mitigate future earnings deterioration. Zurich & AIG are now jumping back in with "opportunistic buys" following substantial net retianed current & prior year losses. Whether the deals will be attractive to reinsurers remains to be seen in the terms, who's taking the tail risk, & potentially the "type" of supporting capital = faced with deteriorating XOL opp, reinsurers may well opt for the "lesser of two evils" by accepting the "primary excess cede" business which also helps with prem volumes. The soft market playbooks are out.  See IBNR #6, 2016

     

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    an assessment of private mi's new borrower-paid monthly mortgage insurance pricing

    Private MI's new rate cards address the demand for risk-based pricing by the capital framework introduced by PMIERs.  We estimate that the new rate cards target low double digit to low teens returns, with leverage from quota share reinsurance potentially improving this to the mid-teens.  Despite the risk of longer-term price competition, we believe the MI stock multiples have been overly penalized by both rate and recession fears.  See our full report for detail.